Confirmed previous forecast
15.807318
Relative Brier Score
158
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 5 | 70 | 20 | 274 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 5 | 13 | 5 | 58 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Definitions |
New Prediction
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Yes
0%
(0%)
No
Files
Load more comments
@ScottEastman seems like @Raan_Mend will keep intriguing us until t.he end
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 749
0%
(0%)
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
70%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
30%
(0%)
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 3000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 499
0%
(0%)
Between 500 and 999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 2000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
51%
(0%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
19%
(0%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Active Forecaster
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 749
0%
(0%)
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
70%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
30%
(0%)
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 3000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 499
0%
(0%)
Between 500 and 999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 2000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
51%
(0%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
19%
(0%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200
Confirmed previous forecast
Files