Confirmed previous forecast
-0.000862
Relative Brier Score
43
Forecasts
5
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 4 | 12 | 175 | 43 | 224 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 36 | 6 | 53 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 11 | 32 | 13 | 43 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 20 | 5 | 32 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025
70%
(0%)
No
Apr 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025
Show more
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2024
75%
(0%)
No
Apr 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2024
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
(+5%)
Yes
Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024
94%
(-5%)
No
Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024
This might be used as a bargaining chip in discussions over Israel-Iran negotiations.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(-5%)
Yes
Apr 14, 2024 to May 14, 2024
85%
(+5%)
No
Apr 14, 2024 to May 14, 2024
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirm forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
2023 Q2
0%
(0%)
2023 Q3
0%
(0%)
2023 Q4
0%
(0%)
2024 Q1
0%
(0%)
2024 Q2
Confirm forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(+9%)
Less than or equal to 49
10%
(-9%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200
Update towards consensus
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-8%)
Yes
98%
(+8%)
No
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Yes
99%
(+2%)
No
Time
Files