INFER Public

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?

Question Ends:
Nov 11, 2020 04:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 03, 2020 09:07PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 28, 2020 04:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 03, 2020 09:26PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $300 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $300 billion and $450 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $450 billion but less than or equal to $600 billion		Answer was correct
More than $600 billion but less than or equal to $750 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $750 billion		Answer was incorrect

Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 04, 2020 04:38PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 04, 2020 04:50PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 20,000		Answer was incorrect
Between 20,000 and 35,000, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 35,000 but less than or equal to 50,000		Answer was correct
More than 50,000 but less than or equal to 65,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 65,000		Answer was incorrect

How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 25, 2021 06:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 04, 2020 06:34PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 5,000		Answer was incorrect
Between 5,000 and 7,500, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 7,500 but less than or equal to 10,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 10,000 but less than or equal to12,500		Answer was correct
More than12,500		Answer was incorrect

How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 09, 2020 04:41PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 675		Answer was correct
Between 675 and 750, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 750 but less than or equal to 825		Answer was incorrect
More than 825 but less than or equal to 900		Answer was incorrect
More than 900		Answer was incorrect

Will either China or India respond to the events in Aksai Chin on June 15, 2020 by launching an airstrike, missile attack, or using another form of lethal force by June 28, 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jun 29, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 22, 2020 04:13PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 22, 2020 08:11PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $30 million		Answer was incorrect
Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million		Answer was incorrect
More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million		Answer was incorrect
More than $150 million		Answer was incorrect

Will the Executive Branch delay implementation of any part of Section 889, Part B, of the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act by July 17, 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 22, 2020 10:47PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the U.S. government cancel or shorten the 24-month STEM extension to the Optional Practical Training program by July 17, 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 18, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 23, 2020 03:39PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Alex

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