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Edging slightly higher after researching the Huawei question. The US are investing a lot in the O-RAN technologies, so I wouldn't be surprised if some start-up emerges to capitalize on the opportunity.

BASE RATE

@Akkete  found dates that would seem to indicate the opening dates of various OTICs.

13 OTICs were inaugurated in August 2021 or later, they combined for roughly 5,300 working days and produced 2 certificates.

There are 8 OTICs in North America which will work for roughly 2,800 days between now and the end of the question. The base rate chance to see a certificate coming out of them would be 65%.

This approach completely ignores all the OTICs that were already operating before August 2021 and all the certificates they released. The assumption is that there is a lead time between the beginning of operation and the release of the first certificate: not knowing when they started operating might significantly skew the results.

The Japanese OTIC released its first certificate 178 days after beginning operation, and the Korean one after 464 days. It would be pointless to extract any meaningful signal from this data, but at least we know that all the North American OTIS have been operating long enough to be plausibly releasing certificates today.

FURTHER CONSIDERATIONS

12/13 of the certificates have been released by Asian OTICs and that's a fact. The reasons are unclear to me. National security and business interest, as suggested by @PeterStamp, are certainly two valuable hypotheses. But one could make a broader point about some base rate "population" statistics: how much each country invests in R&D? How much of the GDP comes from telecom companies? How many large telecom companies and start-ups are working on these issues?

This brings me to my second consideration. 8 OTICs have been opened in the US, all during 2023. This has to be justified by the existence of a significant demand for the services they offer, and certifications are one of such services. If the O-RAN community wanted to simply establish a footprint in the US, they could have opened a single center, as seems to be the case for most countries. The almost simultaneous opening of 8 centers in NA is significant in this regard and might be interpreted as making this question more likely to be resolved positively. 

After all, the number of start-up companies in the US dwarfs that of any other country and they cumulatively output massive technological advances. So it is plausible that some of them are currently working to get one of those certificates. 

• As pointed out by @MrLittleTexas the resolution criteria set a relatively low bar for this question to be resolved positively. Not only it is sufficient that Huawei collaborates in  "testing equipment with O-RAN standards", but it is simply sufficient that it "announces a collaboration" which is an even easier bar to clear. 
• There is already ongoing speculation that Huawei might be interested in joining the O-RAN initiative, this has to be based on the plausibility that it could happen relatively soon.
• How much of a risk does O-RAN pose to Huawei's competitiveness? Probably not as much as some rationales seem to suggest.

Looking beyond the logistical & financial problems associated with ORAN, one question is rarely asked by tech pundits: “Does ORAN actually undermine Huawei?” If the ORAN architecture and business model overcome the aforementioned logistical problems and successfully deliver on the promise of cost savings, what stops Huawei from also adopting the ORAN model?

After all, Huawei is a one-stop shop that offers a complete suite of products covering the entire 5G network value chain. There are no technical or market barriers that prevent Huawei from adopting the ORAN architecture, then selling its own RAN components in a piecemeal fashion, if it is profitable to do so.

In fact, in an open-architecture world, Huawei components may find their way into networks that are traditionally monopolized by Ericsson or Nokia, just as the latter can penetrate 5G network markets currently occupied by Huawei. [1]

Here's the same concept expressed differently.

The idea that a disaggregation of RAN technology will minimize western dependence on Chinese technology is optimistic at best. Whether we consider single-vendor or Open RAN technology, China remains best positioned in the global market. The barriers to market entry for Radio Access Network technology, as well as its components, are high. Entry requires expertise and is capital intensive. [2]

There is also a broader theme about China. Does this negatively impact Chinese companies? Some state-controlled US-sanctioned Chinese companies are already participating in the O-RAN Alliance.

Not only are 36 company participants in the O-RAN Alliance headquartered in China, but some of its most active members are subject to US sanctions. A recently published analysis finds that at least two-thirds of the Chinese O-RAN Alliance members have elements of state-ownership, and six are outright public institutions or agencies. At least 16 O-RAN Alliance members have public links to the Chinese security apparatus. Strikingly, all three of China’s main mobile operators, China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom, participate in the O-RAN Alliance. [2]

Also, here's a Huawei Forum post from less than 6 months ago where they claim what follows.

Huawei actively participates in Open RAN (O-RAN) initiatives, contributing to open interfaces and promoting interoperability. [3]

In conclusion, O-RAN does not probably represent as much of a risk for Huawei as one might initially speculate. Their direct involvement in the O-RAN alliance seems unlikely, but it is far from impossible, particularly given how many other major players in the sector are actively in it.

Whether Huawei decides to join in or not depends on many factors. The faster O-RAN gains traction, the more likely Huawei will be interested in being part of it. 

[1] ORAN: Hardly a Magic Bullet vs Huawei

[2] Open RAN – Not Solving the “5G China Challenge”

[3] Huawei's Comprehensive RAN Portfolio

Not much in the news, the situation appears to be stalling once more.

The issues at the root cause of the previous wave of protests are unresolved and the situation appears to be deteriorating once again.

Social media has been flooded with video footage of morality police violence against women rebelling against the hijab since then; there are also allegations of police officers extorting money from women in exchange for leniency, as well as theft and sexual harassment claims.

Iranian 'Reformist' Women Condemn State’s Hijab Crackdown

Confirming my previous forecast, while waiting for Iran's next move regarding its nuclear program.

IAEA chief to visit Iran next week as anxiety grows over nuclear program

Once again, the news is are slightly more positive than negative. While it is justifiable to see this as not likely to happen, it seems to me that it is far from being impossible as the crowd consensus suggests.

The bar to be cleared in order for this question to resolve positively is very low.

The United States is nearly ready with a security package to offer Saudi Arabia if it normalises relations with Israel, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Monday, as he seeks incentives for Israel to support a Palestinian state.

Blinken says US almost ready with Saudi rewards for Israel normalisation

Confirmed previous forecast

Confirmed previous forecast