INFER Public

Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 04, 2020 03:56PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 04, 2020 04:23PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 20,000		Answer was incorrect
Between 20,000 and 35,000, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 35,000 but less than or equal to 50,000		Answer was correct
More than 50,000 but less than or equal to 65,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 65,000		Answer was incorrect

What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 28, 2020 04:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 04, 2020 05:39PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $300 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $300 billion and $450 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $450 billion but less than or equal to $600 billion		Answer was correct
More than $600 billion but less than or equal to $750 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $750 billion		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese government add Apple, Qualcomm, Cisco, or Boeing to its 'unreliable entities list' by August 10, 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 11, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 18, 2020 02:40PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of O-1 visas will go to Chinese nationals between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 28, 2020 08:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 18, 2020 03:19PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 2%		Answer was correct
Between 2% and 4% inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 4% but less than or equal to 6%		Answer was incorrect
More than 6% but less than or equal to 8%		Answer was incorrect
More than 8%		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 18, 2020 03:40PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30%		Answer was incorrect
Between 30% and 40%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 40% but less than or equal to 50%		Answer was correct
More than 50% but less than or equal to 60%		Answer was incorrect
More than 60%		Answer was incorrect

Will either China or India respond to the events in Aksai Chin on June 15, 2020 by launching an airstrike, missile attack, or using another form of lethal force by June 28, 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jun 29, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 18, 2020 03:49PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 19, 2020 08:24PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $30 million		Answer was incorrect
Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million		Answer was incorrect
More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million		Answer was incorrect
More than $150 million		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Nov 11, 2020 04:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 22, 2020 04:24AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 22, 2020 04:32AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 675		Answer was correct
Between 675 and 750, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 750 but less than or equal to 825		Answer was incorrect
More than 825 but less than or equal to 900		Answer was incorrect
More than 900		Answer was incorrect

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