INFER Public

Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020?

Question Ends:
Oct 28, 2020 01:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2020 10:27PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2020 10:29PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 28, 2020 04:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2020 10:41PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $300 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $300 billion and $450 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $450 billion but less than or equal to $600 billion		Answer was correct
More than $600 billion but less than or equal to $750 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $750 billion		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2020 10:44PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30%		Answer was incorrect
Between 30% and 40%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 40% but less than or equal to 50%		Answer was correct
More than 50% but less than or equal to 60%		Answer was incorrect
More than 60%		Answer was incorrect

What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for China be in the first two quarters of 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 13, 2020 03:37PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 0.25		Answer was incorrect
Between 0.25 and 0.3, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 0.3 but less than or equal to 0.35		Answer was incorrect
More than 0.35 but less than or equal to 0.4		Answer was correct
More than 0.4		Answer was incorrect

What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 13, 2020 03:41PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 0.07		Answer was incorrect
Between 0.07 and 0.08		Answer was incorrect
More than 0.08 but less than or equal to 0.09		Answer was incorrect
More than 0.09 but less than or equal to 0.1		Answer was incorrect
More than 0.1		Answer was correct

What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Mar 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 13, 2020 03:44PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $400 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $400 billion and $480 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $480 billion but less than or equal to $560 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $560 billion but less than or equal to $640 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $640 billion		Answer was correct

How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 18, 2020 05:09PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $30 million		Answer was incorrect
Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million		Answer was incorrect
More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million		Answer was incorrect
More than $150 million		Answer was incorrect

What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the first two quarters (January 1 through June 30) of 2021?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2020 12:30AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $440 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $440 billion and $490 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $490 billion but less than or equal to $540 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $590 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $590 billion		Answer was correct

What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2020 12:33AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 15%		Answer was incorrect
Between 15% and 17%, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%		Answer was incorrect
More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%		Answer was incorrect
More than 21%		Answer was incorrect

jeannettefranco

About: