INFER Public

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 03:19PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 749	0%	0%	+0%	-1%
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive	0%	4%	-4%	-4%
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive	100%	95%	+5%	+4%
More than or equal to 3000	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 03:20PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	4%	-3%	-1%
No	99%	96%	+3%	+1%

Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 03:22PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Apr 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2024	May 24, 2024	18%	-17%	+4%
No	99%	Apr 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2024	May 24, 2024	82%	+17%	-4%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 03:24PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Apr 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2024	May 24, 2024	3%	-2%	+0%
No	99%	Apr 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2024	May 24, 2024	97%	+2%	+0%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 03:26PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	7%	Apr 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2024	May 24, 2024	10%	-3%	+0%
No	93%	Apr 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2024	May 24, 2024	90%	+3%	+0%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 03:31PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	5%	8%	-3%	+0%
Su-35 fighter jets	3%	11%	-8%	-1%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 03:33PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Oman	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Qatar	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	4%	5%	-1%	+0%
Tunisia	0%	1%	-1%	0%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 03:37PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	2%	+3%	+0%
No	95%	98%	-3%	+0%

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 07:41PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	11%	-11%	-3%
No	100%	89%	+11%	+3%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 07:43PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024	Jun 3, 2024	3%	-1%	+1%
No	98%	May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024	Jun 3, 2024	97%	+1%	-1%

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