Confirmed previous forecast
-0.104739
Relative Brier Score
61
Forecasts
4
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 4 | 15 | 332 | 61 | 672 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 124 | 11 | 211 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 15 | 62 | 23 | 129 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 77 | 4 | 147 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(-2%)
Yes
May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024
98%
(+2%)
No
May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
41%
(-46%)
Yes
59%
(+46%)
No
There's no political will from the US or Israel to pause, so it seems increasingly unlikely
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-1%)
Yes
95%
(+1%)
No
still hasn't happened, but still think it's more likely than the crowd due to desire from international community for sanctions and pressure from US
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
4%
(+1%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
slight increase in Saudi Arabia due to Indonesia but otherwise, no
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
1 week left
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(+3%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
3%
(-5%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Clearly Iran needs better missile systems but given the new funding going to Ukraine Russia will be more likely to keep these weapons for themselves.
Files
they don't need to have a ceasefire as they can just continue to be an irritant