Confirmed previous forecast
1.886967
Relative Brier Score
173
Forecasts
16
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 16 | 316 | 63 | 674 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 114 | 11 | 211 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 15 | 62 | 23 | 129 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 67 | 4 | 147 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
22%
(-19%)
Yes
78%
(+19%)
No
far from a ceasefire agreement and then farther for it to last 30 days https://www.vox.com/world-politics/24151934/israel-hamas-ceasefire-rafah
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-3%)
Yes
99%
(+3%)
No
they don't need to have a ceasefire as they can just continue to be an irritant
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(-2%)
Yes
May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024
98%
(+2%)
No
May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024
going back down due to de-escalation and lack of apparent ability
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
41%
(-46%)
Yes
59%
(+46%)
No
There's no political will from the US or Israel to pause, so it seems increasingly unlikely
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-1%)
Yes
95%
(+1%)
No
still hasn't happened, but still think it's more likely than the crowd due to desire from international community for sanctions and pressure from US
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
4%
(+1%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
slight increase in Saudi Arabia due to Indonesia but otherwise, no
Files