Kyiv looks safe for now and it is very unlikely to have a significant change by next month.
1.353521
Relative Brier Score
279
Forecasts
13
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 10 | 51 | 346 | 126 | 530 |
| Comments | 1 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 28 |
| Questions Forecasted | 10 | 43 | 85 | 47 | 121 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 2 | 15 | 4 | 20 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2024
97%
(0%)
No
Apr 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Apr 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
70%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 27, 2024 to May 27, 2024
30%
(0%)
No
Apr 27, 2024 to May 27, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
8%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I cannot imagine any scenario where Russia would consider invading the Baltic nations, based on the knowledge and information I have now.
Why might you be wrong?
Who know what would happen??