Forecasted Questions
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2024 03:42PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Apr 15, 2024 03:42PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 86% | 53% | +33% | -5% |
| No | 14% | 47% | -33% | +5% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 16, 2024 05:13PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Apr 16, 2024 05:13PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 3% | +2% | -2% |
| No | 95% | 97% | -2% | +2% |
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 10:40PM UTC
(1 month ago)
May 03, 2024 10:40PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024 | Aug 3, 2024 | 7% | +3% | -1% |
| No | 90% | May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024 | Aug 3, 2024 | 93% | -3% | +1% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 19, 2024 03:37PM UTC
(29 days ago)
May 19, 2024 03:37PM UTC
(29 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Qatar | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 2% | 5% | -3% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 19, 2024 03:37PM UTC
(29 days ago)
May 19, 2024 03:37PM UTC
(29 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 10% | -7% | +0% |
| No | 97% | 90% | +7% | +0% |
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 21, 2024 04:52PM UTC
(27 days ago)
May 21, 2024 04:52PM UTC
(27 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 40% | 35% | +5% | -7% |
| No | 60% | 65% | -5% | +7% |
Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 24, 2024 11:27AM UTC
(24 days ago)
May 24, 2024 11:27AM UTC
(24 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 100% | +0% | +0% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 25, 2024 03:17PM UTC
(23 days ago)
May 25, 2024 03:17PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 3% | +1% | -1% |
| No | 96% | 97% | -1% | +1% |
Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 25, 2024 03:25PM UTC
(23 days ago)
May 25, 2024 03:25PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 11% | 11% | +0% | -2% |
| No | 89% | 89% | +0% | +2% |
Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 25, 2024 03:33PM UTC
(23 days ago)
May 25, 2024 03:33PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | May 25, 2024 to Nov 25, 2024 | Jun 25, 2024 | 9% | -3% | -1% |
| No | 94% | May 25, 2024 to Nov 25, 2024 | Jun 25, 2024 | 91% | +3% | +1% |