If something doesn't happen in the next few days, I'll go back down.
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Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 3 | 14 | 232 | 69 | 609 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 18 | 4 | 61 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 9 | 33 | 12 | 76 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 36 | 2 | 118 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
52%
(+9%)
Yes
48%
(-9%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Yes
97%
(+2%)
No
lowering with time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
(+6%)
Less than or equal to 49
5%
(-6%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200
In the time remaining, I'd be surprised to see this get to 50, but I guess I'm uncertain enough to leave about 5% in case something unexpected happens.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
43%
(-12%)
Yes
57%
(+12%)
No
Lowering with time and the recent aid package movement.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
55%
(-13%)
Yes
45%
(+13%)
No
still think it's more likely than not, but could easily see it never materializing
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
2023 Q2
0%
(0%)
2023 Q3
0%
(0%)
2023 Q4
0%
(0%)
2024 Q1
0%
(0%)
2024 Q2
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
lowering as little progress seems to be happening in the talks so far:
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-continue-cairo-israel-pounds-palestinian-enclave-2024-05-05/
Will check back and update after Tuesday.