INFER Public

What percentage of contributions to Github's "very high impact" AI projects will be from China in 2022?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 16, 2022 02:30PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 22%		Answer was correct
More than or equal to 22% but less than 27%		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 27%		Answer was incorrect

How many integrated circuit (IC) units will China produce in 2022?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 18, 2022 11:37AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 200 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 200 billion but less than 300 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 300 billion but less than 400 billion		Answer was correct
More than or equal to 400 billion but less than 500 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 500 billion		Answer was incorrect

Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 01, 2023 04:21AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 21, 2023 01:39PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 09, 2023 02:44PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will Microsoft's AI-powered “new Bing” be available to the public by 30 April 2023?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
May 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 09, 2023 03:08PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 15, 2023 02:35AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Japan		Answer was correct
The Netherlands		Answer was correct
South Korea		Answer was incorrect
Any other country not listed		Answer was incorrect

Will Sweden become a full member of NATO before the NATO Summit in July 2023?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 11, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(10 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 29, 2023 06:25AM UTC
(11 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Nov 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(7 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 16, 2023 07:18PM UTC
(7 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(6 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 16, 2023 07:37PM UTC
(7 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 7%		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%		Answer was correct
More than or equal to 22%		Answer was incorrect

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