INFER Public

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Apr 20, 2023 06:16PM UTC	What percentage of contributions to Github's “very high impact” AI projects will be from the EU in 2022?	0.0067
Apr 20, 2023 03:52PM UTC	Will U.S. domestic labor demand for artificial intelligence skills equal or exceed 3.2% for December 2022?	0.082384
Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM UTC	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined?	-0.073177
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	From April 2022 through March 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Lebanon?	-0.065761
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	How will the U.S. rank in AI skills penetration in 2022?	-0.02922
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Which country or union will have the second most citations of "high impact" AI scientific publications in 2022?	0.152036
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	How many AI scientific publications will be published by EU institutions in 2022?	0.074149
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?	0.016261
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia?	-0.011585
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?	-0.113586
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 3, 2023 and Mar 1, 2023)	0.000102
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?	-0.001789
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	0.004664
Feb 28, 2023 05:00PM UTC	On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035?	0.040717
Feb 03, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China launch more orbital rockets than the U.S. in January 2023?	-0.000007
Feb 02, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022)	0.00033
Jan 25, 2023 02:00PM UTC	What percentage of ASML's lithography sales will be to the United States in 2022?	-0.008624
Jan 18, 2023 05:00AM UTC	How many integrated circuit (IC) units will China produce in 2022?	-0.005311
Jan 03, 2023 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 3, 2022 and Jan 3, 2023)	0.000181
Jan 02, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will the price per chip-hour of Google’s cloud-based Tensor Processing Unit (TPU v4) be greater than $3.22 on January 1, 2023?	0.004918

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