It is ulikely as there were not that many fatalities in the past in such short period. Ukraine has issues with its Air defence but Kiev region is probably best guarded.
-0.38335
Relative Brier Score
141
Forecasts
7
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 11 | 21 | 461 | 102 | 774 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
Questions Forecasted | 11 | 14 | 45 | 19 | 70 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 62 | 9 | 90 |
Definitions |
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
5%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
passage of time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(0%)
Yes
30%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 749
0%
(0%)
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
0%
(-10%)
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
100%
(+10%)
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 3000
passage of time and current situation
Files
I think there is less than 1% probability for each. I do not think that Russia will have ability to do it in 3 years. It would need to decisevily win war in Ukraine which is unlikely to move further. And still I do not think that NATO will collapse before 1 April 2027 even if Donald Trump would win in November.Russia would not risk invading Baltic states.