INFER Public

What percentage of the continental U.S. will be experiencing severe drought or worse on 22 February 2022?

Question Ends:
Feb 22, 2022 09:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 11, 2022 01:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 33.0		Answer was incorrect
Between 33.0 and 35.5, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 35.5 but less than 36.5		Answer was correct
Between 36.5 and 39.0, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 39.0		Answer was incorrect

Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2022 11:59PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 22, 2022 03:25PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

When will the end of day closing value for the Russian Ruble against the US Dollar drop below 75 Rubles to 1 USD?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 19, 2022 02:45PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Before 1 April 2022		Answer was incorrect
Between 1 April 2022 and 30 April 2022, inclusive		Answer was correct
Between 1 May 2022 and 31 May 2022, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
Not before 1 June 2022		Answer was incorrect

Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters?

As of Aug 29, 2022 05:31PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2022 02:33PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 29, 2022 05:31PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

What will be the price per ton of aluminum on 1 June 2022?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 29, 2022 05:44PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $3000		Answer was correct
More than or equal to $3000 but less than $3500		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to $3500 but less than $4000		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to $4000		Answer was incorrect

Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 15, 2022 03:47PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 29, 2022 05:54PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2022 04:28AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

How many tech startup layoff events will be recorded in July 2022?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 01, 2022 02:40AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 74		Answer was incorrect
Between 75 and 99, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 100		Answer was correct

Will the U.S. Congress pass a tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing or design before 1 January 2023?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 28, 2022 02:48PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, for both manufacturing and design		Answer was incorrect
Yes, for only manufacturing		Answer was correct
Yes, for only design		Answer was incorrect
No		Answer was incorrect

Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months?

As of Aug 28, 2022 02:51PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 28, 2022 02:51PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

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