sepeskoe

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Executive level management. 40 years of high tech R&D for the DoD, Intelligence Community and Homeland Security.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
May 23, 2023 03:04PM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022) 0.002094
May 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 20, 2023 and May 20, 2023) 0.0004
May 15, 2023 05:45PM UTC Will Thailand hold a general election on or before 14 May 2023? 0.006865
Apr 20, 2023 03:52PM UTC Will U.S. domestic labor demand for artificial intelligence skills equal or exceed 3.2% for December 2022? 0.186507
Apr 20, 2023 03:20PM UTC How many European Union countries will have an AI skill migration greater than 2 per 10,000 in 2022? -0.087716
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC How will the U.S. rank in AI skills penetration in 2022? 0.028638
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023? 0.012989
Apr 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession? 0.020068
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023? 0.0
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 3, 2023 and Mar 1, 2023) 0.0
Mar 19, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will Microsoft's AI-powered “new Bing” be available to the public by 30 April 2023? -0.472242
Mar 17, 2023 02:12PM UTC Will a European country announce that they are sending fighter jets to Ukraine by 30 April 2023? -0.339
Mar 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 17, 2022 and Sep 1, 2022) 0.093558
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023? 0.038561
Feb 28, 2023 05:00PM UTC On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035? 0.046646
Feb 02, 2023 05:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022) -0.003084
Jan 25, 2023 02:00PM UTC What percentage of ASML's lithography sales will be to the United States in 2022? 0.33948
Jan 03, 2023 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 3, 2022 and Jan 3, 2023) 0.0
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC By 31 December 2022, will Impossible Foods announce a date for their IPO? 0.005338
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? -0.003217
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