Definitely depends on the lawsuit, however twitter is most likely to do it first.
0.092361
Relative Brier Score
34
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 214 | 0 | 474 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 59 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 56 | 0 | 116 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 44 |
Definitions |
Monthly Power Forecaster - Dec 2023
no clear reason for this to happen
Based largely on @o-maverick @johnnycaffeine and @DKC
Why do you think you're right?
The average protests and riots that ACLED has recorded in Colombia from 1 June 2023 to now is 200 with the min being 38 and maximum being 345 on any given month, taking the min, avg and max and simply multiplying it by 12 months we get 456 min, 2405 avg, and 4140 max during this span. However it has been on a downward trend on average since october. The current total so far is 1403 and there are only 5 months left.
Why might you be wrong?
new events
Why do you think you're right?
The average battles and incidents of violence against civilians that ACLED has recorded in Venezuela from 1 June 2023 to now is 32 with the min being 4 and maximum being 43 on any given month, taking the min, avg and max and simply multiplying it by 12 months we get 48 min, 386 avg, and 586 max during this span. However it has been on a downward trend on average since july.
Why might you be wrong?
something could escalate
Current price is 80.850, and the trend is downward mostly, the highest it has been last was on September 18, 93.290, and given that any 100,000 barrel a day decline in Iran’s production would raise the Brent oil price by over $1 a barrel it seems somewhat unlikely the price will raise above 90
While there have been diplomatic efforts and precedents for shorter pauses, significant obstacles such as Israel's and Hamas' stated goals, high demands, existential motivations, and low trust between the parties make a pause that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days somewhat difficult to achieve.
Why do you think you're right?
There is no clear reason now for China who has a monopoly almost on dysprosium oxide to raise the prices over $1000
Why might you be wrong?
This could change due to change in diplomatic relations or competition.