Confirmed previous forecast
0.454427
Relative Brier Score
361
Forecasts
25
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 11 | 47 | 434 | 155 | 660 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| Questions Forecasted | 11 | 13 | 34 | 17 | 77 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 22 | 5 | 69 |
| Â Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
May 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025
90%
(0%)
No
May 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025
Show more
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25%
(+16%)
Yes
May 4, 2024 to Nov 4, 2024
75%
(-16%)
No
May 4, 2024 to Nov 4, 2024
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
May 4, 2024 to Jun 4, 2024
95%
(0%)
No
May 4, 2024 to Jun 4, 2024
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
May 4, 2024 to Nov 4, 2024
96%
(0%)
No
May 4, 2024 to Nov 4, 2024
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
May 4, 2024 to Nov 4, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
94%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
May 4, 2024 to Nov 4, 2024
95%
(0%)
No
May 4, 2024 to Nov 4, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
1%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
3%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
96%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files