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Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

As of Nov 28, 2023 03:16AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2023 03:16AM UTC
(7 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 28, 2023 to Apr 28, 2024	Nov 28, 2023	1%	-1%	+0%

Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 09, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2023 03:17AM UTC
(7 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	-1%

Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(15 days ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2023 10:52AM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	-1%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

As of Mar 12, 2024 02:05PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 12, 2024 02:05PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Feb 12, 2024 to Aug 12, 2024	Mar 12, 2024	10%	-5%	-3%
No	95%	Feb 12, 2024 to Aug 12, 2024	Mar 12, 2024	90%	+5%	+3%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

As of Mar 25, 2024 01:48PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 25, 2024 01:48PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Feb 25, 2024 to Aug 25, 2024	Mar 25, 2024	4%	+1%	+2%
No	95%	Feb 25, 2024 to Aug 25, 2024	Mar 25, 2024	96%	-1%	-2%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

As of Mar 25, 2024 01:50PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 25, 2024 01:50PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	Feb 25, 2024 to Aug 25, 2024	Mar 25, 2024	3%	+1%	+1%
No	96%	Feb 25, 2024 to Aug 25, 2024	Mar 25, 2024	97%	-1%	-1%

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month?

As of Mar 29, 2024 11:29PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 29, 2024 11:29PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	100%	Feb 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2024	Mar 29, 2024	6%	+94%	-29%
No	0%	Feb 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2024	Mar 29, 2024	94%	-94%	+29%

Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?

As of Apr 28, 2024 01:50AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 28, 2024 01:50AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	45%	Mar 28, 2024 to Sep 28, 2024	Apr 28, 2024	20%	+25%	+8%
No	55%	Mar 28, 2024 to Sep 28, 2024	Apr 28, 2024	80%	-25%	-8%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

As of May 7, 2024 11:24AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 07, 2024 11:24AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	23%	Apr 7, 2024 to Apr 7, 2025	May 7, 2024	17%	+6%	+3%
No	77%	Apr 7, 2024 to Apr 7, 2025	May 7, 2024	83%	-6%	-3%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?

As of May 7, 2024 11:38AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 07, 2024 11:38AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	Apr 7, 2024 to Oct 7, 2024	May 7, 2024	15%	-7%	+5%
No	92%	Apr 7, 2024 to Oct 7, 2024	May 7, 2024	85%	+7%	-5%

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