11th
Accuracy Rank

probahilliby

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Certified Superforecaster® at Good Judgment, Inc.; Metaculus Pro forecaster. Questions everything but not a cynic.

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Forecasted Questions
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Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 15, 2023 11:10AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will a European country announce that they are sending fighter jets to Ukraine by 30 April 2023?

Forecast Count:
 13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 17, 2023 11:49AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was correct

Will Microsoft's AI-powered “new Bing” be available to the public by 30 April 2023?

Forecast Count:
 15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 30, 2023 12:01AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was correct

Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 30, 2023 02:18AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 30, 2023 02:20AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?

Forecast Count:
 15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 01, 2023 12:36AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Japan Answer was correct
The Netherlands Answer was correct
South Korea Answer was incorrect
Any other country not listed Answer was incorrect

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 01, 2023 01:49AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will Kosovo and Serbia sign an EU-backed proposal aimed at normalizing diplomatic relations by 30 June 2023?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(11 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 11, 2023 12:27AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will Thailand hold a general election on or before 14 May 2023?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 11, 2023 01:51PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was correct

Will the composition of Israel's current governing coalition change before 1 July 2023?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(11 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 08, 2023 05:05AM UTC
(11 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect
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