INFER Public

Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2022 02:13AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2023 03:15AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Japan		Answer was correct
The Netherlands		Answer was correct
South Korea		Answer was incorrect
Any other country not listed		Answer was incorrect

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 02, 2023 01:24AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 08, 2023 02:49AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 09, 2023 08:47PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will Prayut Chan-o-cha be re-elected as prime minister of Thailand by the Thai parliament after the next election and before 1 Jan 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(4 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 29, 2023 05:39PM UTC
(12 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(4 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2023 03:34AM UTC
(10 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(8 days ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2023 03:34AM UTC
(10 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Mar 31, 2024 04:00PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2023 03:34AM UTC
(10 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(4 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(10 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

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