ElisaNorio

Elisa Norio
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Independent Researcher Crime and Security/Transnational Organized Crime and Tourism, Drug Trafficking, NPS, Darknet crypto markets, Extortion. Europe and the Americas.

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Forecasted Questions
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What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 May 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 14, 2020 04:24PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 59% Answer was incorrect
Between 59% and 66%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 66% but less than or equal to 73% Answer was incorrect
More than 73% but less than or equal to 80% Answer was correct
More than 80% Answer was incorrect

What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Feb 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 12, 2020 10:04PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 0.07 Answer was incorrect
Between 0.07 and 0.08 Answer was incorrect
More than 0.08 but less than or equal to 0.09 Answer was incorrect
More than 0.09 but less than or equal to 0.1 Answer was incorrect
More than 0.1 Answer was correct

How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 27, 2020 09:55PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $40 billion Answer was incorrect
Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive Answer was correct
More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $100 billion Answer was incorrect

What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Mar 01, 2021 05:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 23, 2020 02:33PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $20 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $20 billion but less than or equal to $30 billion Answer was incorrect
Between $30 billion and $40 billion, inclusive Answer was incorrect
Between $40 billion and $50 billion, inclusive Answer was correct
More than $50 billion Answer was incorrect

Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jun 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 30, 2021 02:42PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 24, 2021 07:43PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $13 billion Answer was incorrect
Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $25 billion Answer was correct

Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 28, 2021 01:02PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was correct

Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 17, 2021 01:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 28, 2021 01:02PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Aug 31, 2021 10:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 28, 2021 01:06PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 15, 2022 03:47PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 01, 2021 01:18AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was correct
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