RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will China implement new national-level measures that regulate AI development or restrict its use in 2025?

Closed Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM · 54 · 117

94%

Chance

Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a ceasefire before 1 October 2025?

Closed Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM · 126 · 228

27%

Chance

Will the China Coast Guard or PLA Navy attempt to anchor one or more of their vessels on or near one of the disputed maritime features in the South China Sea before 1 January 2025?

Closed Jan 1, 2025 05:00AM · 12 · 17

4%

Chance

What will be the percent increase in the number of disinformation cases discussing Germany, originating in pro-Kremlin media, between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025, compared to the same period one year prior?

Closed Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM · 12 · 24

Will war break out between Hezbollah and Israel in the next month?

Closed Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM · 73 · 135

7%

Chance

Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear facility in the next 6 months?

Closed Jan 1, 2025 05:00AM · 60 · 77

13%

Chance

How many members will be part of the Gold Hydrogen Program on 29 February 2024?

Closed Feb 29, 2024 05:00AM · 24 · 40

Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on or before 31 March 2023?

Closed Apr 1, 2023 03:59AM · 9 · 10

96%

Chance

Will more U.S. patent applications mentioning both “quantum computing” and “artificial intelligence” be filed in 2023 than in 2022?

Closed Jan 1, 2024 04:59AM · 44 · 61

77%

Chance

By 31 March 2023, will the U.S. Department of Agriculture ban cultured meat companies from labeling their products as “meat” in the U.S.?

Closed Apr 1, 2023 03:59AM · 20 · 21

8%

Chance

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Will China implement new national-level measures that regulate AI development or restrict its use in 2025?

94%

Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a ceasefire before 1 October 2025?

27%

Will the China Coast Guard or PLA Navy attempt to anchor one or more of their vessels on or near one of the disputed maritime features in the South China Sea before 1 January 2025?

4%

What will be the percent increase in the number of disinformation cases discussing Germany, originating in pro-Kremlin media, between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025, compared to the same period one year prior?

Will war break out between Hezbollah and Israel in the next month?

7%

Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear facility in the next 6 months?

13%

How many members will be part of the Gold Hydrogen Program on 29 February 2024?

Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on or before 31 March 2023?

96%

Will more U.S. patent applications mentioning both “quantum computing” and “artificial intelligence” be filed in 2023 than in 2022?

77%

By 31 March 2023, will the U.S. Department of Agriculture ban cultured meat companies from labeling their products as “meat” in the U.S.?

8%

Status

Season

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94%

27%

4%

7%

13%

96%

77%

8%