INFER Public

Question

Crowd Forecast

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 33 · 43

20%

Chance

Will Houthi rebels launch a missile that strikes within Israel in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 35 · 68

53%

Chance

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 69 · 88

3%

Chance

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 61 · 75

2%

Chance

Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 57 · 74

2%

Chance

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 30 · 49

25%

Chance

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 58 · 150

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 70 · 170

2%

Chance

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 77 · 214

8%

Chance

Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 78 · 252

8%

Chance

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In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

20%

Will Houthi rebels launch a missile that strikes within Israel in the next six months?

53%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

3%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

2%

Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?

2%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

25%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

2%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

8%

Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months?

8%

Status

Type

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Topics

Tags

20%

53%

3%

2%

2%

25%

2%

8%

8%