INFER Public

Crowd Forecast

Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 168 · 873

3%

Chance

Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024?

Closing Mar 31, 2024 04:00PM UTC · 71 · 384

2%

Chance

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Closing Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 134 · 750

0%

Chance

For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?

Closing Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 38 · 229

By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 90 · 596

1%

Chance