INFER Public

Crowd Forecast

Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 119 · 169

7%

Chance

Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024?

Closing Mar 31, 2024 04:00PM UTC · 46 · 78

5%

Chance

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Closing Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 95 · 178

0%

Chance

For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?

Closing Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 22 · 44

By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 69 · 295

10%

Chance

Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 87 · 381

70%

Chance

Which of the following companies will announce a new neuromorphic chip or system by 30 June 2023?

Closing Jul 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC · 62 · 396

Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023?

Closing Sep 17, 2023 04:00AM UTC · 75 · 637