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Question
Crowd Forecast
How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined?
Closing
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
·
70
·
291
Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?
Closing
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
·
92
·
288
87%
Chance
Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?
Closing
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
·
68
·
319
4%
Chance
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Closing
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
·
196
·
660
46%
Chance
Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?
Closing
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
·
146
·
559
6%
Chance
Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?
Closing
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
·
134
·
487
23%
Chance
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Closing
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
·
149
·
503
9%
Chance
Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?
Closing
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
·
168
·
873
3%
Chance
In collaboration with the
UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023?
Closing
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
·
87
·
647
In collaboration with the
UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?
Closing
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
·
112
·
732
0%
Chance
1
2
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