INFER Public

Crowd Forecast

How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 70 · 291

Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 92 · 288

87%

Chance

Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?

Closing Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 68 · 319

4%

Chance

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Closing Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 196 · 660

46%

Chance

Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 146 · 559

6%

Chance

Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 134 · 487

23%

Chance

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Closing Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 149 · 503

9%

Chance

Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 168 · 873

3%

Chance

In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment

What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 87 · 647

In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment

Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 112 · 732

0%

Chance