INFER Public

Crowd Forecast

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?

Closing May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 202 · 981

4%

Chance

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Closing Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 195 · 657

46%

Chance

Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 167 · 868

3%

Chance

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Closing Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 149 · 503

9%

Chance

Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 146 · 558

6%

Chance

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Closing Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 134 · 749

0%

Chance

Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 134 · 482

25%

Chance

Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 117 · 1020

2%

Chance

In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment

Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 112 · 731

0%

Chance

Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 100 · 713

2%

Chance