INFER Public

Crowd Forecast

Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 119 · 169

7%

Chance

Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023?

Closing Aug 31, 2023 04:00AM UTC · 111 · 229

8%

Chance

Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 98 · 560

14%

Chance

What percentage of the U.S.’s renewable energy consumption will come from biofuels in 2023?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 97 · 534

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Closing Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 95 · 178

0%

Chance

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?

Closing May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 91 · 120

8%

Chance

Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 87 · 381

70%

Chance

In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment

Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 86 · 254

1%

Chance

Will Sweden become a full member of NATO before the NATO Summit in July 2023?

Closing Jul 11, 2023 04:00AM UTC · 83 · 210

21%

Chance

Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 81 · 265

6%

Chance