RAND Forecasting Initiative

According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will the U.S. seize at least 50,000 pounds of drugs in July 2025?

Closed Aug 1, 2025 03:59AM · 142 · 264

67%

Chance

According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will there be at least 37 million inbound travelers to the U.S. in July 2025?

Closed Aug 1, 2025 03:59AM · 137 · 269

6%

Chance

In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2022 and Dec 17, 2022)

Closed Dec 17, 2022 04:00PM · 0 · 0

0%

Chance

In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2022 and Nov 17, 2022)

Closed Nov 17, 2022 04:00PM · 0 · 0

0%

Chance

In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2022 and Oct 17, 2022)

Closed Oct 17, 2022 04:00PM · 0 · 0

0%

Chance

What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in China in 2022?

Closed Jan 1, 2023 04:59AM · 41 · 107

What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in the European Union and United Kingdom in 2022?

Closed Jan 1, 2023 04:59AM · 27 · 66

What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in the United States in 2022?

Closed Jan 1, 2023 04:59AM · 28 · 76

In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 17, 2022 and Sep 17, 2022)

Closed Sep 17, 2022 04:00PM · 0 · 0

0%

Chance

Will the U.S. military acknowledge using an autonomously operated drone to identify and deploy lethal force against a human target in the next four quarters (year)? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 24, 2022 and Aug 24, 2022)

Closed Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM · 0 · 0

0%

Chance

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According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will the U.S. seize at least 50,000 pounds of drugs in July 2025?

67%

According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will there be at least 37 million inbound travelers to the U.S. in July 2025?

6%

In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2022 and Dec 17, 2022)

0%

In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2022 and Nov 17, 2022)

0%

In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2022 and Oct 17, 2022)

0%

What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in China in 2022?

What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in the European Union and United Kingdom in 2022?

What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in the United States in 2022?

In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 17, 2022 and Sep 17, 2022)

0%

Will the U.S. military acknowledge using an autonomously operated drone to identify and deploy lethal force against a human target in the next four quarters (year)? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 24, 2022 and Aug 24, 2022)

0%

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Season

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67%

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