28th
Accuracy Rank

MCowley

About:

West Australian Engineer and former publican.

2nd of 7035 - In the News 2021 (GJO)
20th of 1654 - China and the World in 2021 (GJO)
5th of 2248 - Think Again with Adam Grant (GJO 2021)
5th of 1839 - Economist The World in 2021 (GJO)
1st of 35 - Karios Covid-19 Forecasting Tournament (2020)
15th percentile - GJO Project 2.0 Covid-19 forecasting Study (2020)
18th of 3351 - Economist World in 2020 (GJO)
40th of 8231- In the News 2020 (GJO)
55th of 4851 - Global Judgement Challenge 2020
1st of ~300 - Prescience 2019 Season

(Occasionally go by Moglj)

GJO: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/34959

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Nov 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive? -0.006556
Sep 10, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will Egypt’s urban inflation rate be greater than or equal to 40% for any month between March and August 2023, inclusive? -0.066896
Sep 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023? 0.006228
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will a top U.S. chemical or oil and gas company join the BOTTLE consortium as an industry partner by 31 August 2023? -0.05257
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2022? 0.002806
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022? 0.029826
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in 2022? 0.03255
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2022? 0.00699
Aug 20, 2023 05:25PM UTC Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023? 0.054988
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 and 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 100 or more protest and riot-related fatalities in Brazil? 0.008325
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities from conflict or political violence in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank? 0.005353
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record at least 50 protests or riots or at least 10 protest- or riot-related fatalities in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province? -0.000035
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 10,000 or more civilian fatalities in Ethiopia? 0.001106
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1000 or more fatalities from conflicts or political violence in Kenya? -0.005247
Jul 11, 2023 01:00PM UTC Will Sweden become a full member of NATO before the NATO Summit in July 2023? 0.073727
Jul 02, 2023 04:00AM UTC How many “venture capital members” will be part of BioMADE at the end of June 2023? -0.001399
Jul 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC Will Kosovo and Serbia sign an EU-backed proposal aimed at normalizing diplomatic relations by 30 June 2023? 0.000005
May 23, 2023 03:04PM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022) -0.000223
Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM UTC Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023? -0.001882
Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM UTC How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined? -0.024365
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