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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021) -0.0017
Sep 23, 2021 10:19AM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021? 0.295969
Sep 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 17, 2021 and Sep 17, 2021) -0.009
Jul 01, 2021 05:32PM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive? -0.014052
Jul 01, 2021 05:30PM UTC Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021? -0.000421
Jun 01, 2021 06:44PM UTC Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021? -0.000605
Apr 10, 2021 03:56AM UTC How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.194811
Apr 01, 2021 04:51PM UTC How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? 0.026519
Mar 07, 2021 09:22PM UTC What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? 0.131588
Feb 18, 2021 03:07PM UTC What will be the opening price of GameStop stock on Tuesday, February 16? -0.006118
Feb 05, 2021 05:35PM UTC What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2020? -0.009165
Nov 13, 2020 04:08PM UTC When will China officially recognize a winner of the U.S. presidential election? -0.1776
Nov 03, 2020 05:49PM UTC Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020? -0.014849
Nov 03, 2020 02:25PM UTC Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020? -0.106775
Oct 21, 2020 02:47PM UTC What percentage of O-1 visas will go to Chinese nationals between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive? 0.06802
Oct 20, 2020 01:16PM UTC How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive? 0.073573
Oct 15, 2020 04:00AM UTC Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020? -0.038482
Oct 01, 2020 02:37PM UTC What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive? -0.054533
Oct 01, 2020 04:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020? -0.003968
Sep 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020? -0.025646
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