Forecasted Questions
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2024 12:02AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Mar 31, 2024 12:02AM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 80% | -30% | +3% |
| No | 50% | 20% | +30% | -3% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 27, 2024 08:13PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Apr 27, 2024 08:13PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 8% | 9% | -1% | +0% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 8% | 11% | -3% | -1% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(20 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(20 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 27, 2024 08:13PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Apr 27, 2024 08:13PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 30% | 4% | +26% | +0% |
| No | 70% | 96% | -26% | +0% |
Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 27, 2024 08:17PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Apr 27, 2024 08:17PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70% | Apr 27, 2024 to May 27, 2024 | May 27, 2024 | 6% | +64% | +1% |
| No | 30% | Apr 27, 2024 to May 27, 2024 | May 27, 2024 | 94% | -64% | -1% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 27, 2024 08:17PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Apr 27, 2024 08:17PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Apr 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025 | Jul 27, 2024 | 13% | -12% | -2% |
| No | 99% | Apr 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025 | Jul 27, 2024 | 87% | +12% | +2% |
Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 27, 2024 08:17PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Apr 27, 2024 08:17PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | Apr 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2024 | May 27, 2024 | 18% | -15% | +2% |
| No | 97% | Apr 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2024 | May 27, 2024 | 82% | +15% | -2% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 27, 2024 08:18PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Apr 27, 2024 08:18PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 4% | -2% | -1% |
| No | 98% | 96% | +2% | +1% |
Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(20 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(20 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 27, 2024 09:20PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Apr 27, 2024 09:20PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 98% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 27, 2024 09:22PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Apr 27, 2024 09:22PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Latvia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 29, 2024 02:53PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Apr 29, 2024 02:53PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 2% | +3% | -1% |
| No | 95% | 98% | -3% | +1% |