36th
Accuracy Rank

cmeinel

Carolyn Meinel
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0.186045

Relative Brier Score

341

Forecasts

197

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 23 86 1660 341 3113
Comments 7 35 731 166 1385
Questions Forecasted 18 40 103 46 185
Upvotes on Comments By This User 8 41 941 197 1448
 Definitions
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Increasing based upon the possibility that Iran's leadership, now smarting from the failure of its massive attack on Israel, might begin acting in a more strategic manner. Iran's mullahs come from a long tradition of Shiite (them) vs Sunni (modern Muslims) conflict. Majority Sunni Saudi Arabia possesses the crown jewel of the Muslim religion: Mecca! Iran's pilgrims must beg Saudi rulers for permission to participate in the annual Hajj.

In light of this, what enemy of Saudi Arabia is most likely to topple its rulers? Houthis, who share a long border with Saudi Arabia. According to a retired journalist friend who has spent time in Yemen, the leaders of Saudi Arabia are terrified of them. Saudi Arabia has a weak military and a population of ~37M, of which ~40% are foreigners. By contrast,  Yemen has a population of ~35 million., nearly all of them citizens. So in the event of war, Yemen could field twice as many soldiers as Saudi Arabia.

What if Iran were to focus on helping the Houthis win the civil war? This would give it a hammer over Saudia Arabia,  a bigger thorn in the side of Isreal, and a giant middle finger to all the nations who would very much like to use the Suez Canal, especially Sunni majority Egypt.

Could this lead to a clear Houthi victory and ceasefire within six months? That assumes Iran's mullahs would be thinking strategically and Houthis focusing on winning the civil war. It also assumes that Iran's leaders won't mind that Yeman is religiously diverse, with Sunnis in the majority.


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Why might you be wrong?

Too high even at a mere 4%? Why Houthis can't defeat Saudi Arabia, or even win the civil war any time soon: Khat.  I'm assuming that the abstemious rulers of Iran would have second thoughts about relying upon Yemeni soldiers for long-term goals.

Too low? Houthi leaders might substitute Captagon for Khat, which acts faster and longer, thus freeing Khat addicts to become better soldiers.

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New Prediction
cmeinel
made their 26th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
3% (0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
7% (-1%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Why do you think you're right?

Training of Ukranian pilots on F-16s continues. Once these are in the air over  Ukraine, probably within a month, Russia's Su-35 Flanker-E Multirole Fighters likely will become an endangered species. If so, then Russia would be unwilling to deliver these to Iran.

Also, Iran just convinced Russia that its leaders are clueless about military strategy. It was entirely predictable that Iran's drones and missiles would fail to achieve any meaningful punishment of Israel. "If you strike at a king...."

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Why might you be wrong?

Too low: Russia's pilots might be better trained than I am assuming. In theory, SU-35s are better fighters than the aging F-16s.

Too high: it generally is a good bet to assume the defenders are more motivated than aggressors. Given that these two classes of fighters are not radically different in their capabilities, motivation and intensity of training might be more than enough.

P.S. My husband is a retired fighter pilot. I highly recommend such people .

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New Prediction
cmeinel
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8% (+1%)
Yes
Apr 15, 2024 to Apr 15, 2025
92% (-1%)
No
Apr 15, 2024 to Apr 15, 2025

Adjusting for passage of time, otherwise using the base rate for a man his age, adjusted for excellent health care options and no known vices.

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
cmeinel
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7% (0%)
Yes
Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
93% (0%)
No
Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
cmeinel
made their 15th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
11% (0%)
Yes
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
89% (0%)
No
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024

Staying low in case none of the drones make it through.

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ScottEastman
made a comment:

@cmeinel A bedouin child was struck in the head by falling shrapnel, between near Arad, in a region between the Negev and Judea deserts. This should close the question. https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-796838

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New Prediction
cmeinel
made their 15th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
11% (+10%)
Yes
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
89% (-10%)
No
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024

When a dictator becomes so unpopular that he finally gets worried, the time-tested response is to demonize others. The Iranian revolution began with crowds chanting "Death to America" for good reason given US support for the Shah.  But it's getting old -- or do the Ayatollah and his enablers know this?


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New Prediction
cmeinel
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15% (+13%)
Yes
Apr 13, 2024 to Apr 13, 2025
85% (-13%)
No
Apr 13, 2024 to Apr 13, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Is Iran just throwing a temper tantrum? Granted, Israel's attack on an Iranian embassy was outrageous. But is sending lots of drones, most of them, if not all, to be shot down, a rational response? The Ayatollah is deeply unpopular, with ~ 2/3 of all its mosques having shut down for lack of worshipers. This looks more like a public relations effort than a serious attack.

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Why might you be wrong?

On the other hand, Israel might declare war on Iran as yet another effort of the deeply unpopular Netanyahu to stay out of prison, his next likely residence after losing power.

So, with two deeply unpopular leaders in play, what better than for one or the other to declare war and pray that this will make him popular again.

P.S. My husband and I watched 1940 movie "The Great Dictator" last night. Is what's past, still prologue?


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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
cmeinel
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
4% (0%)
Yes
96% (0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?

The Junta continues to lose territory.

Dateline 4-12-2024 Hundreds of Burmese refugees fled to Thailand on Friday after Myanmar’s ruling junta lost a strategic border town to rebels from the Karen ethnic group. The country’s military, or Tatmadaw, used to oversee the eastern town of Myawaddy, which is home to around 200,000 people. But pro-democracy rebels and armed ethnic groups have long sought control. Now, residents are fleeing to Bangkok out of fear that the junta will bomb the town in retaliation.

Source: https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/1363-will-myanmar-hold-national-elections-before-1-july-2025

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Why might you be wrong?

This looks like a case where something is falling apart slowly, and then perhaps suddenly. If the rebel entities can figure out how to work together after the fall of the junta, they may be the ones conducting a national election before the forecast horizon.

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