24th
Accuracy Rank

cmeinel

Carolyn Meinel
About:
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-0.255464

Relative Brier Score

565

Forecasts

291

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 6 55 1370 565 3337
Comments 0 21 609 243 1462
Questions Forecasted 5 32 99 56 195
Upvotes on Comments By This User 3 31 804 291 1542
 Definitions
New Prediction
cmeinel
made their 29th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (-1%)
Kharkiv
0% (0%)
Kyiv
0% (0%)
Odesa

s both sides are becoming exhausted, might the front lines freeze and then an uneasy truce similar to the Minsk Agreements?

Dateline 7-26-2024 As Russia fights the war in Ukraine, it is losing a battle at home—against inflation.

Last year, the Russian central bank more than doubled interest rates to tame prices. Inflation, though, kept rising, hitting over 9% this month, with a vast range of goods and services becoming costlier, from potatoes (up 91% so far this year) to economy-class flights (up 35%).
Source: https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/putin-russia-runaway-inflation-9e9fb3bd

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New Prediction
cmeinel
made their 19th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (-1%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (-1%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1% (-2%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
99% (+4%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)

Influenced by @DKC herehttps://www.infer-pub.com/comments/134865


I'm leaving 1% for reduction for using up 60% U for further enrichment to high enough to enable the construction of warheads that are small enough to be delivered by Iran's missiles. The higher the enrichment, the smaller a warhead can be made.

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New Prediction

China is negotiating with fourteen Palestinian factions, including Hamas, to agree on a two-state peace deal. One of the hurdles to peace in Gaza is the problem of factions even within Gaza.

Dateline 7-25-2024 Beijing has increasingly sought to portray itself as a global peacemaker. This week, it also hosted a meeting of Palestinian rival factions including Hamas and Fatah, which have been estranged for years. Representatives of the 14 groups [emphasis added] signed an agreement to work toward unity and establish an interim reconciliation government, but with few details on how that would happen.
Source: https://www.wsj.com/world/china-casts-itself-as-peacemaker-in-first-high-level-talks-with-ukraine-since-russias-invasion-1ba6a906

Files
New Prediction
cmeinel
made their 28th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
2% (+1%)
Kharkiv
0% (0%)
Kyiv
0% (0%)
Odesa

Increasing slightly given fresh forces moving into Kharkiv oblast.

Dateline7-22-2024 Russia has deployed additional assault units near the village of Hlyboke in Kharkiv Oblast to prepare for offensive operations, Nazar Voloshyn, the spokesperson of the Khortytsia group of forces, told Interfax Ukraine on July 21.
Source: https://kyivindependent.com/russia-deployed-additional-assault-groups-in-kharkiv-oblast-military-says/?mc_cid=ec793907f5&mc_eid=a3bc49849b

Files
New Prediction

A Cromwellian 1% for now.

Files
New Prediction
cmeinel
made their 34th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Kuwait
1% (0%)
Oman
2% (-1%)
Qatar
4% (-1%)
Saudi Arabia
1% (0%)
Tunisia

Passage of time.

Files
New Prediction
cmeinel
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Estonia
1% (0%)
Latvia
1% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

-Following @PeterStamp 

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
cmeinel
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9% (0%)
Yes
Jul 15, 2024 to Jul 15, 2025
91% (0%)
No
Jul 15, 2024 to Jul 15, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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