INFER Public

Forecasted Questions

Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(5 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 20, 2023 08:11AM UTC
(8 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Nov 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(7 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2023 10:34PM UTC
(7 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(5 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 14, 2023 08:34PM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 5%		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 5% but less than 6%		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 6%		Answer was correct

Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(5 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 14, 2023 08:39PM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(5 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2023 07:51PM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect
No		Answer was correct

When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(5 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2023 07:52PM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
In 3Q 2022 or 4Q 2022		Answer was incorrect
In 1Q 2023 or 2Q 2023		Answer was incorrect
In 3Q 2023 or 4Q 2023		Answer was incorrect
Not before 1Q 2024		Answer was correct

Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(5 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2023 07:52PM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Mar 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 06, 2024 10:10PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will Houthi rebels launch a missile that strikes within Israel in the next six months?

As of Mar 26, 2024 10:04PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 26, 2024 10:04PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct
No		Answer was incorrect

What will be the highest price per barrel of Brent crude oil between 4 December 2023 and 31 March 2024?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 28, 2024 07:43PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $90		Answer was correct
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to $120		Answer was incorrect