Forecasted Questions
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 11, 2024 06:45AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 11, 2024 06:45AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 17% | 4% | +13% | -3% |
| No | 83% | 96% | -13% | +3% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 28, 2024 01:34AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 28, 2024 01:34AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Mar 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025 | Jun 28, 2024 | 6% | -2% | -2% |
| No | 96% | Mar 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025 | Jun 28, 2024 | 94% | +2% | +2% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
28 Forecasts
28 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 30, 2024 08:57PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 30, 2024 08:57PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 12% | -10% | -3% |
| No | 98% | 88% | +10% | +3% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 30, 2024 08:59PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 30, 2024 08:59PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Mar 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024 | Jun 30, 2024 | 0% | +1% | +0% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts
17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 30, 2024 09:01PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 30, 2024 09:01PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 4% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 96% | 96% | +0% | +1% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 30, 2024 09:04PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 30, 2024 09:04PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 1% | 8% | -7% | +1% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 2% | 11% | -9% | -2% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 30, 2024 09:05PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 30, 2024 09:05PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 4% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 96% | 96% | +0% | +0% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 30, 2024 09:07PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 30, 2024 09:07PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 2% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 96% | 98% | -2% | +0% |
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 07, 2024 11:40AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Apr 07, 2024 11:40AM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 1% | 4% | -3% | +0% |
| No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 99% | 95% | +4% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 07, 2024 11:52AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Apr 07, 2024 11:52AM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 69% | 55% | +14% | -5% |
| No | 31% | 45% | -14% | +5% |