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82nd
Accuracy Rank
mbbernstein
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Seasons
2024 Season
2020 Season
2021 Season
2022 Season
2023 Season
Artificial Intelligence
China Politics, Relations, and Technology
Formerly on Foretell
Global AI Race: Talent, Research, and Tech
How Will the U.S. Technology Sector Develop in the Coming Years?
Immigration
Industry
INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration
International Diplomacy & Conflict
Iran: Threats & Influence
Issue Campaign: U.S. Department of Defense - Silicon Valley Relationship
Microelectronic Technologies
Public Attitudes
Research
Russia-Ukraine War
Science & Technology
Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector
The Water Cooler
U.S.-China
Decoding Disinformation
EA College Tournament
Future Bowl
Government Investment
Iran Nuclear Program
Iran-VNSAs
Manufacturing
metric-question
Microelectronics
Mission: AI Advancement
Mission: Diplomacy
Open RAN
Quantum Computing
semiconductors
Semiconductor Supply Chain
U.S. tech sector
Date Ended
Question
Relative Brier Score
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
-0.006251
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC
Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024?
0.000109
Apr 13, 2024 09:41PM UTC
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2023 and Apr 13, 2024)
0.050871
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024?
-0.000413
Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM UTC
What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023?
0.242583
Mar 18, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Will Houthi rebels launch a missile that strikes within Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2023 and Mar 18, 2024)
-0.267619
Mar 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024?
-0.000354
Feb 02, 2024 10:00PM UTC
When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?
0.023715
Feb 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?
-0.000426
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC
Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?
1.852365
Jan 17, 2024 05:00PM UTC
How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined?
0.000241
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 9,000 or more protests and riots in Pakistan?
-0.000002
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 10,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Yemen?
0.0
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities in Syria from remote violence and battles involving Turkish security forces?
0.0
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?
-0.038339
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023?
-0.108969
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits?
-0.015133
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?
-0.000366
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?
-0.023598
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023?
-0.001043
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