Passage of time.
-1.111685
Relative Brier Score
119
Forecasts
15
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 4 | 18 | 130 | 41 | 305 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 35 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 15 | 51 | 29 | 114 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 2 | 19 | 6 | 29 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-31%)
Yes
95%
(+31%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
Apr 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2024
I think Iran has had its share of offensive actions with the recent attack on Israel. And, as it's known, even the attack on Israel was relatively benign (and the US promptly warned that they wouldn't retaliate). So, I still believe that Iran won't attack the US in the next few months, most likely.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
(+22%)
Yes
Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
70%
(-22%)
No
Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
recent Iran's airstrike on Israel has increased the odds IMO
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
(+45%)
Yes
Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
50%
(-45%)
No
Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
due to the recent airstrike on Israel
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Big gap and long timeframe. Seems very unlikely.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
If she ceases to be president, it's more likely to be due to resignation or impeachment.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
30%
No
I imagine that AI will accelerate the pace of discoveries for some time.
Files
Confirming previous forecast