Forecasted Questions
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 09, 2024 02:39PM UTC
(26 days ago)
Apr 09, 2024 02:39PM UTC
(26 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 1% | 9% | -8% | +2% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 5% | 11% | -6% | +0% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 12, 2024 02:49PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Apr 12, 2024 02:49PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | Apr 12, 2024 to Apr 12, 2025 | May 12, 2024 | 21% | +4% | +6% |
| No | 75% | Apr 12, 2024 to Apr 12, 2025 | May 12, 2024 | 79% | -4% | -6% |
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 14, 2024 06:07AM UTC
(21 days ago)
Apr 14, 2024 06:07AM UTC
(21 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 90% | 80% | +10% | +2% |
| No | 10% | 20% | -10% | -2% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 16, 2024 02:28PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Apr 16, 2024 02:28PM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | Apr 16, 2024 to Apr 16, 2025 | Jul 16, 2024 | 14% | +1% | -1% |
| No | 85% | Apr 16, 2024 to Apr 16, 2025 | Jul 16, 2024 | 86% | -1% | +1% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 22, 2024 06:38PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Apr 22, 2024 06:38PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Qatar | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 0% | 5% | -5% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 22, 2024 06:40PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Apr 22, 2024 06:40PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 8% | -3% | -1% |
| No | 95% | 92% | +3% | +1% |
Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 25, 2024 03:54PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Apr 25, 2024 03:54PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +1% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 26, 2024 07:12AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Apr 26, 2024 07:12AM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 749 | 0% | 0% | +0% | -1% |
| Between 750 and 1499, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive | 1% | 6% | -5% | -1% |
| Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive | 98% | 93% | +5% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 3000 | 1% | 0% | +1% | +0% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts
17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 28, 2024 02:54PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Apr 28, 2024 02:54PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 13% | -13% | -1% |
| No | 100% | 87% | +13% | +1% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 06:25AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 06:25AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 5% | -5% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 95% | +5% | +0% |