geoffodlum

The trend towards media companies committing to C2PA continues:  Sony issued new firmware that lays the groundwork for its cameras to incorporateC2Pa authentication capabilities:  https://petapixel.com/2024/04/24/the-highly-anticipated-sony-a1-and-a9-iii-firmware-updates-have-arrived/.  Amazon Web Services is helping Sinclair incorporate C2PA as a standard in its media stored on AWS clouds: https://aws.amazon.com/blogs/media/ensuring-media-authenticity-traceability-and-integrity-by-running-c2pa-on-aws/

But we are very close to running out of time to see the NYT, BBC, or CBC announce a commitment to publishing only digitally-authenticated photos or videos. It will happen pretty soon (by end of 2024?) but not by May 31.

Khamenei seems to have weathered the small but possible threat to his power from harder-right elements after the parliamentary elections, and also seems to have weathered the brief escalation with Israel that was de-escalated pretty well last month by both sides.  Leaving the JCPOA would have much higher costs to Iran than benefits, so unless tensions with the US or Israel spike again in coming  months, that outcome looks highly unlikely.

Some interesting mixed signals recently.  SecState Blinken was in China last week along with State Department Cyber & AI envoy Nate Fick. No doubt they discussed the Biden WH's chip export prohibitions and the US request that China agree to prohibit the use of AI decision-making in its nuclear weapons program (they agreed to hold a formal dialogue), and Blinken also pressed China to stop giving dual use tech and weapons to Russia.  But the temperature and tone from both sides was alot calmer and less combative than it has been in the past. 

I'm sure the Biden administration is still quietly prodding Microsoft about the risks of maintaining its AI lab in China, especially if US-China relations take another downturn, which could happen if (a) the US levies sanctions against China over its support for Russia's war effort or tightens further the semiconductor export ban, (b) the US catches China in a significant espionage effort, (c) Xi raises the rhetoric on Taiwan and we see new provocative military exercises in the South China Sea.

Microsoft has been hedging its bets a bit, by expanding its presence in Malaysia, including a commitment to invest $2B over the next 4 years in Malaysian cloud and AI services. If the USG forces Microsoft to leave China, it has a decent landing pad in Malaysia.

My bottom line: I am lowering my forecast to come closer to the team's consensus, and watching carefully for signals that the currently, momentarily stabilized US-China relationship wont take a sudden downturn. Also worth anticipating whether Microsoft in China could become an issue in the US presidential elections, as both sides revert instinctively to trying to outdo each other on China bashing. 

Following colleagues' rationales and the very strong likelihood (based on bipartisan support now that it's finally on the floor) of passage in the House on Saturday and in the Senate next week.