Extra pressure for this to happen.
1.035959
Relative Brier Score
476
Forecasts
69
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 21 | 348 | 93 | 476 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 18 | 6 | 58 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 14 | 41 | 17 | 47 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 44 | 6 | 69 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Decoding Disinformation,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran-VNSAs,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Mission: AI Advancement
New Prediction
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(+20%)
Yes
25%
(-20%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(+18%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
80%
(-18%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Increasing based on the current pressure from the USA for this to happen.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Going down to zero, just one month left.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Time. The recent announcement from Meta doesn't include text.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
1%
(+1%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Increasing based on the external push for this to happen.
Files
Kind reminder that the article is actually about Saudi Arabia, and not Qatar...
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 749
0%
(0%)
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
1%
(-6%)
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
98%
(+6%)
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 3000
Updating based on the latest numbers.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
99%
(+4%)
No
Reconsidering adding to the equation the short time frame.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
Three years it's a lot of time for things to change.