20th
Accuracy Rank

aggaray

About:
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6.646273

Relative Brier Score

880

Forecasts

45

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 5 29 245 105 880
Comments 2 5 32 24 88
Questions Forecasted 5 29 55 37 177
Upvotes on Comments By This User 1 2 21 13 45
 Definitions


New Badge
aggaray
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Apr 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
aggaray
earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Apr 2024

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Considering there are still pending exoplanets for classification and a high probability from professionals working in the area, i would support a 75% of chance for this question to be true

Files
Why might you be wrong?

I consider that the reason for not getting this right could be in general the classification process more than the fact of discovering candidates for exoplanets

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

This is a very unlikely outcome...Huawei has been gaining space among mobile providers since a while ago and it would be very unlikely-it is not a good business decision-to stop its path to be the only vendor for multiple carriers. 

I don´t see-at least in the next 5 years-this possible

Files
Why might you be wrong?

A change in the business...and probably an option to obtain benefits even if the company is not the only vendor

Files
New Prediction
aggaray
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4% (-1%)
Yes
Apr 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
96% (+1%)
No
Apr 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025

Very unlikely ---more right now in Iran´s current geopolitical position

Files
New Prediction
aggaray
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3% (-1%)
Yes
Apr 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2024
97% (+1%)
No
Apr 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2024

I don´t see this as an outcome with high probabilities in this moment-at least acoording to latest news-

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
aggaray
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
2023 Q2
0% (0%)
2023 Q3
1% (0%)
2023 Q4
1% (0%)
2024 Q1
1% (0%)
2024 Q2
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
aggaray
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
99% (0%)
No
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024

So far, unfortunately i must keep my previous forecast

Files
New Prediction
aggaray
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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