Confirmed previous forecast
0.312844
Relative Brier Score
52
Forecasts
5
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 8 | 11 | 197 | 52 | 516 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 26 |
| Questions Forecasted | 8 | 11 | 29 | 14 | 87 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 20 | 5 | 28 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
5%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
95%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(0%)
Yes
25%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-9%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
99%
(+9%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
The tit for tat strikes on targets in Israeli and Iranian soil seems to me to have caused Iran to pull back on taking direct actions themselves. They don't want to pull the US into this Iran/Israel conflict.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(0%)
Yes
25%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(-5%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
90%
(+5%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Houti activity seems to have abated and Israeli vessel traffic has slowed, so there are fewer targets. Iran may have directed the Houti rebels to pull back as a result of the tit for tat direct hits on Israeli and Iranian soil.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
(+40%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
50%
(-40%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Blinken seems to be making progress. International pressure on Israel and Hamas seems to be leading towards some deal on a cease fire, release of hostages, etc. If a deal is made, then the normalization process might be a "reward" to Israel from Saudi and the Arab world. Might require the exit of Netanyahu -- I can't place a probability on that during this period, hence my 50/50 at this point.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Unless he's assassinated, Putin will last another week.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-15%)
Yes
95%
(+15%)
No
They're busy dealing with the EU, Congress and other issues. Don't expect them to make any significant announcements along these lines in the next 5 weeks.
Files