INFER Public

Crowd Forecast

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Closing Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 178 · 413

54%

Chance

Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 133 · 359

13%

Chance

Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 127 · 299

43%

Chance

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Closing Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 137 · 331

11%

Chance

In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment

Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?

Closing Nov 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC · 171 · 498

6%

Chance