This is still unlikely, but it seems Saudi is eager to normalize relations. However it seems unlikely with Gaza still ongoing and Hamas won’t bend to Saudi wishes
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(+5%)
Yes
May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024
95%
(-5%)
No
May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
May 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
May 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9%
(0%)
Yes
May 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025
91%
(0%)
No
May 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024
95%
(0%)
No
May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(-2%)
Yes
94%
(+2%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
This isn’t happening at this point
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Moldova
1%
Armenia
1%
Georgia
1%
Kazakhstan
Moldova is the most likely because of Transnistria. They welcome Russian support and Russia has been open about its aims to annex Transnistria, it all depends on the outcome of the Ukraine war. Armenia is weak and unimportant for Russia, plus it has tensions with Turkey/Azerbaijan. Georgia’s government is pro-Russian so likely won’t be invaded, and Kazakhstan is weak and sparsely populated so Russia will probably use economic coercion over military.
Files
The crackdowns now are happening because the regime knows it can crackdown without large repercussions. Although they will continue, I don’t think a massive protest will happen