8th
Accuracy Rank

belikewater

About:

I started forecasting at Good Judgment Open in 2021. Here's my profile there: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/99943

Email: [email protected]

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jul 11, 2023 01:00PM UTC Will Sweden become a full member of NATO before the NATO Summit in July 2023? 0.462544
Jul 02, 2023 04:00AM UTC How many “venture capital members” will be part of BioMADE at the end of June 2023? 0.001448
Jul 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Which of the following companies will announce a new neuromorphic chip or system by 30 June 2023? -0.088625
Jun 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 20, 2023 and Jun 20, 2023) 0.004697
May 23, 2023 03:04PM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022) 0.000111
May 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 20, 2023 and May 20, 2023) 0.006827
Apr 20, 2023 03:52PM UTC Will U.S. domestic labor demand for artificial intelligence skills equal or exceed 3.2% for December 2022? 0.004802
Apr 20, 2023 03:20PM UTC How many European Union countries will have an AI skill migration greater than 2 per 10,000 in 2022? 0.168106
Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM UTC How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined? -0.001321
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC From April 2022 through March 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Lebanon? -0.000106
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC How will the U.S. rank in AI skills penetration in 2022? -0.089473
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC How many AI scientific publications will be published by EU institutions in 2022? 0.054642
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023? 0.001358
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia? -0.000604
Apr 10, 2023 09:00PM UTC What will be the highest average price recorded for a gallon of diesel in the U.S. between 6 Feb 2023 and 10 Apr 2023? -0.015352
Apr 05, 2023 07:15PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023? 0.112395
Apr 05, 2023 07:14PM UTC Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023) -0.000442
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023? -0.000062
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China? 0.15618
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 3, 2023 and Mar 1, 2023) 0.0
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