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38th
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Yifan
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Artificial Intelligence
China Politics, Relations, and Technology
Formerly on Foretell
Global AI Race: Talent, Research, and Tech
How Will the U.S. Technology Sector Develop in the Coming Years?
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INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration
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Iran: Threats & Influence
Issue Campaign: U.S. Department of Defense - Silicon Valley Relationship
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Mission: AI Advancement
Mission: Diplomacy
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Date Ended
Question
Relative Brier Score
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Democratic Republic of Congo?
0.000031
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, how many fatalities from violence against civilians in Mexico will ACLED record?
-0.003492
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities in Syria from remote violence and battles involving Turkish security forces?
0.000024
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 200 or more fatalities from battles and remote violence involving Kyrgyz and Tajik security forces?
0.000015
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 5,000 fatalities from battles and remote violence between Azerbaijani and Armenian security forces?
-0.000006
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?
0.272205
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023?
0.002498
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits?
-0.010781
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?
0.000146
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?
-0.009803
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will Ariel Henry cease to be either acting president or president of Haiti through an irregular transition on or before 31 December 2023?
0.000142
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023?
0.001804
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023?
-0.0418
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023?
0.000021
Dec 30, 2023 02:16PM UTC
What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023?
-0.016882
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM UTC
Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023)
0.005395
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?
-0.066389
Nov 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
0.109621
Oct 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 20, 2023 and Oct 20, 2023)
0.0
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?
-0.014245
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